China grows faster that expected but slowdown ahead
July 17, 2017

China's economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, but credit tightening could lead to a slowdown in the second half of the year, according to Craig Botham, Schroders' Emerging Market Economist.

A key contributor to the growth surprise was much stronger industrial production than expected, at 7.6 percent, up from 6.5 percent year-on-year the previous month, he comments. Breaking the data down shows an acceleration within broad manufacturing, and within some but not all raw materials sectors. So this does not necessarily seem to be a growth performance entirely reliant on 'Old China', he adds.

"This raises the upside risks to our forecast for 2017 of 6.6 percent growth; while we still expect real estate and infrastructure to slow, it seems increasingly likely that manufacturing may be able to compensate," he says.

"Other high frequency data has also surprised to the upside this month, with both retail sales and fixed asset investment beating expectations. Investment saw a broad-based acceleration with manufacturing investment continuing last month's pick-up, but real estate and infrastructure also turning around after slowing notably in May. Arguably there are base effects at work but it is hard not to see this as a sign of resilience.

"Within retail sales there was a large jump in particular for communication appliances (20.1 percent y/y from 5.1 percent previously), with most other sub-components weakening. Jumps in this series tend to be short lived so it will be interesting to see if broader retail sales can maintain momentum in the months ahead.

"We are likely to revise up our growth forecast for China when we update our numbers next month, but we maintain our expectations for a slowdown in the second half of the year. Credit tightening continues, and generally impacts the economy with a lag; we as yet see no reason that this should not be true this year.

"The strong Q2 growth performance should give the authorities the confidence to maintain their tighter stance for the time being. Indeed, the Financial Work Conference which concluded last week focused on deepening financial reforms and containing financial risks, with priority to be given to reduce leverage at state-owned enterprises.

"It also seems likely that global trade will soften in the months ahead, at least in value terms, as the impact of the commodity price recovery fades. Export growth has a good relationship with manufacturing in China, so any slowdown would challenge a key support of China's robust growth."





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China's economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter, but credit tightening could lead to a slowdown in the second half of the year, according to Craig Botham, Schroders' Emerging Market Economist.

A key contributor to the growth surprise was much stronger industrial production than expected, at 7.6 percent, up from 6.5 percent year-on-year the previous month, he comments. Breaking the data down shows an acceleration within broad manufacturing, and within some but not all raw materials sectors. So this does not necessarily seem to be a growth performance entirely reliant on 'Old China', he adds.

"This raises the upside risks to our forecast for 2017 of 6.6 percent growth; while we still expect real estate and infrastructure to slow, it seems increasingly likely that manufacturing may be able to compensate," he says.

"Other high frequency data has also surprised to the upside this month, with both retail sales and fixed asset investment beating expectations. Investment saw a broad-based acceleration with manufacturing investment continuing last month's pick-up, but real estate and infrastructure also turning around after slowing notably in May. Arguably there are base effects at work but it is hard not to see this as a sign of resilience.

"Within retail sales there was a large jump in particular for communication appliances (20.1 percent y/y from 5.1 percent previously), with most other sub-components weakening. Jumps in this series tend to be short lived so it will be interesting to see if broader retail sales can maintain momentum in the months ahead.

"We are likely to revise up our growth forecast for China when we update our numbers next month, but we maintain our expectations for a slowdown in the second half of the year. Credit tightening continues, and generally impacts the economy with a lag; we as yet see no reason that this should not be true this year.

"The strong Q2 growth performance should give the authorities the confidence to maintain their tighter stance for the time being. Indeed, the Financial Work Conference which concluded last week focused on deepening financial reforms and containing financial risks, with priority to be given to reduce leverage at state-owned enterprises.

"It also seems likely that global trade will soften in the months ahead, at least in value terms, as the impact of the commodity price recovery fades. Export growth has a good relationship with manufacturing in China, so any slowdown would challenge a key support of China's robust growth."



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