Central bank will allow economies to run hot
December 18, 2019

Colin Dryburgh, investment manager within the Kames Capital multi-asset team, comments on today's UK inflation figure of 1.5%.

"Beyond the prospect of a more stable geopolitical backdrop, the outlook is for strengthening support from fiscal policies – nowhere seemingly more so than in the UK.

"With monetary policy options seen as few and far between, governments are having to shoulder more of the responsibility of promoting growth, regardless of their existing debt position. Low inflation everywhere will – for now - encourage investors to see this as not only safe, but desirable.

"How central banks react (should inflation start to pick up) is key but, led by the US Federal Reserve, appetite to accommodate upside pressure on prices is growing. Bolstered by the belief that economies remain easier to slow than propel, they will be allowed to ‘run hot'.

"We don't, therefore, expect central banks to tighten next year. This is a better backdrop for equities than bonds; there is little margin for error in current bond yields."





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Colin Dryburgh, investment manager within the Kames Capital multi-asset team, comments on today's UK inflation figure of 1.5%.

"Beyond the prospect of a more stable geopolitical backdrop, the outlook is for strengthening support from fiscal policies – nowhere seemingly more so than in the UK.

"With monetary policy options seen as few and far between, governments are having to shoulder more of the responsibility of promoting growth, regardless of their existing debt position. Low inflation everywhere will – for now - encourage investors to see this as not only safe, but desirable.

"How central banks react (should inflation start to pick up) is key but, led by the US Federal Reserve, appetite to accommodate upside pressure on prices is growing. Bolstered by the belief that economies remain easier to slow than propel, they will be allowed to ‘run hot'.

"We don't, therefore, expect central banks to tighten next year. This is a better backdrop for equities than bonds; there is little margin for error in current bond yields."



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